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How a U.S.–Israel conflict with Iran could affect Gulf energy exports and global oil markets. This analysis examines likely short-term market outcomes and longer-term political scenarios in Iran, and why even prolonged conflict may not produce a sustained shutdown of Hormuz. Read the full analysis on Substack: https://energystraits.substack.com/p/iran-war-scenarios-implications-for

The Strait of Hormuz remains the primary transit corridor for Gulf oil and LNG exports to Asia, with nearly half of China’s crude imports passing through waters secured by a Western-led maritime architecture. The degradation of Iran’s naval capabilities in the current U.S.–Israel campaign alters the strategic meaning of the Strait of Hormuz. For decades, the dominant concern was whether Tehran might attempt to close the Strait and trigger a global oil crisis. In practice, Ira

New energy alignments are linking American capital, Iraqi resources, and Turkish export infrastructure. Today’s news that Chevron has signed a framework agreement with Iraq to take over Iraq’s giant West Qurna 2 oilfield from Russia’s Lukoil reflects a structural shift in Iraq’s oil sector driven by geopolitics, sanctions, and the repositioning of Western oil majors, and places Turkey in a familiar, and increasingly advantageous, strategic role.   West Qurna 2 is one of the w

In a period of profound global change, the Middle East is entering a new phase of energy geopolitics shaped by shifting power balances, the rise of electricity as the world’s dominant energy carrier, and the strategic recalibration of major powers. In my most talk on November 25, 2025, at the Hollings Center in Istanbul, I explored how the region is being “re-energized” and what that means for global politics. The full presentation can be downloaded below. From Post-WWII Foun

The Blue Stream Natural Gas Pipeline. Source: Wikipedia . As Russia’s Gazprom and Turkey’s BOTAŞ work to renew two major long-term pipeline gas supply contracts set to expire on December 31, the talks are unfolding against a backdrop of U.S. pressure on countries to reduce Russian energy imports as a means of limiting Moscow’s military funding. I addressed these negotiations in the Turkey Recap Economy Newsletter #74 , published on November 7. “This likely commitment [Turkey-

Dr. John V. Bowlus joins ANews ’ Turkey’s Diplomacy with Umar Tasleem to unpack Iran’s renewed threats in the Strait of Hormuz, shifting global energy alliances, and the region’s path toward pragmatic cooperation. Key Takeaways Energy Cooperation Is Driving Regional Diplomacy. Beyond profit, these projects serve a geopolitical purpose — enabling collaboration between countries that have historically been rivals. Energy is becoming a bridge for peace, fostering pragmatic engag