A Clean Board? How Energy Geopolitics in the Middle East Are Being Redrawn

In a period of profound global change, the Middle East is entering a new phase of energy geopolitics shaped by shifting power balances, the rise of electricity as the world’s dominant energy carrier, and the strategic recalibration of major powers. In my most talk on November 25, 2025, at the Hollings Center in Istanbul, I explored how the region is being “re-energized” and what that means for global politics. The full presentation can be downloaded below.

From Post-WWII Foundations to Today’s Competitive Landscape

Beginning in the 1950s, Middle Eastern oil became the backbone of Western energy security. Pipelines, tanker routes, and alliances linked the region to global markets. Yet, political turbulence from Cold War rivalries and Arab nationalism to the Iranian Revolution made volatility – and oil-price volatility in global oil markets – the norm. The modern oil market, dominated by powerful national oil companies, emerged from this history and remains essential to global stability. 

The Case for a More Integrated Middle East

Today, a confluence of factors has reduced obstacles to regional energy cooperation:

• U.S. policy under Trump favors commercial, energy-centered dealmaking.

• Russia’s post-2022 retrenchment and Iran’s post-2023 have weakened historically obstructionist actors.

• Solar and gas expansions are transforming the region’s internal dynamics.

• Türkiye, Israel, and Gulf states have emerged as pivotal players.

I refer to this as energization, a term borrowed from Goldthau (2024), but a model in which states integrate economically around energy flows. Though not a panacea for political conflict, it can create structure for cooperation. 

Strategic Corridors: Iraq-Türkiye and Beyond

The revival of the Iraq-Türkiye energy corridor, rooted in decades-old pipeline infrastructure, highlights renewed interstate cooperation. Türkiye’s gas sector is surging due to domestic Black Sea production, post-2022 LNG shifts, and future import options from Iraq and the Gulf. The Eastern Mediterranean is another key arena, where Israeli and regional gas development intersects with competing visions such as the India–Middle East transport corridor. 

Fossil Fuel Powers vs. Renewable Superpowers

The United States, Russia, and the Gulf remain the world’s fossil fuel giants—together accounting for the majority of oil supply. Massive new LNG volumes from the U.S. and Qatar will shape markets for decades. Meanwhile, China has become the dominant force in renewable energy manufacturing and rare-earth processing, giving Beijing unprecedented geopolitical leverage. 

U.S.-China Energy Competition

Washington’s energy strength lies in hydrocarbons; Beijing’s lies in clean-tech supply chains. This asymmetry fuels wider geopolitical competition, especially in areas such as critical minerals and advanced manufacturing. While energy is only one part of U.S.-China rivalry, it frames how each engages the Middle East and the broader Global South.

Energization vs. Power Politics

Trump’s vision of energy-driven integration is appealing: strong states prosper, conflict recedes, and economic development expands. But history warns that commerce alone rarely resolves political fractures. Yet if regional power centers – Ankara, Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, Jerusalem – choose integration, a new reality could materialize despite structural challenges. 

Toward a More Solar-Energized Middle East

The region is uniquely positioned to harness solar potential, electrify its economies, and build cross-border infrastructure. With Russia and Iran weakened, new opportunities are emerging for Middle Eastern states to dictate their own energy future.

The “Age of Electricity,” as coined by the International Energy Agency last month, demands not just electrons but connectivity, namely power lines, gas networks, and common markets. A more integrated energy system could serve as the backbone for economic growth and geopolitical stability in an increasingly fragmented world.

Bowlus Clean Board Nov 25.pdf

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