Chevron’s West Qurna 2 entry echoes the past and strengthens Turkey’s hand in Iraq’s oil future

New energy alignments are linking American capital, Iraqi resources, and Turkish export infrastructure.

Today’s news that Chevron has signed a framework agreement with Iraq to take over Iraq’s giant West Qurna 2 oilfield from Russia’s Lukoil reflects a structural shift in Iraq’s oil sector driven by geopolitics, sanctions, and the repositioning of Western oil majors, and places Turkey in a familiar, and increasingly advantageous, strategic role.

West Qurna 2 is one of the world’s largest producing oilfields, with reserves exceeding 13 billion barrels and output approaching half a million barrels per day – roughly 0.5% of global supply and nearly 10% of Iraq's total production. Its transition from Russia’s Lukoil to Chevron represents part of a broader unwinding of Russian energy influence in Iraq following Western sanctions imposed on the company in 2025. As Russian operators retreat, U.S. and European companies are re-entering fields that offer some of the lowest production costs globally and long-term production potential.

For Chevron, the move strengthens its Middle East upstream portfolio and provides exposure to stable, large-scale reserves at a time when international oil companies are prioritizing capital discipline, reserve longevity, and low-cost barrels. Its expansion, however, also comes as Turkey has simultaneously deepened its institutional energy partnerships with Chevron, ExxonMobil, and BP, creating a convergence of corporate and geopolitical alignment that could reshape energy flows between Iraq and global markets.

Turkey’s upstream pivot

In recent months, Turkey’s state oil company TPAO has signed agreements with Chevron, ExxonMobil, and BP covering joint exploration and production opportunities both inside Turkey and internationally, including Iraq. These deals reflect Ankara’s ambition to evolve from a transit state into an upstream investor and strategic partner in regional production. For Western oil majors, cooperation with Turkey offers access to infrastructure, regional expertise, and political alignment at a moment when Iraq’s oil geography is being reorganized. This positions Turkey as an embedded partner in the capital allocation strategies of the world’s leading oil companies.

Iraq’s oil production remains heavily concentrated in the south, but export infrastructure and geopolitical leverage extend northward through Turkey. The Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline, which connects Iraqi fields to Turkey’s Mediterranean export terminal at Ceyhan, remains one of Iraq’s most strategically important oil arteries. Even as southern export routes dominate volumes, northern infrastructure provides redundancy, flexibility, and geopolitical optionality. Iraq, if it succeeds in expanding production capacity toward its long-term targets of 6–7 million barrels per day, will increasingly depend on diversified export routes, including through Turkey.

Back to the future

This dynamic closely resembles an earlier era of Iraqi–Turkish energy cooperation. From 1977 through the 1980s, Iraq and Turkey developed and expanded the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline in response to geopolitical disruption and export vulnerability. At the time, Iraq was seeking to diversify export routes beyond the Persian Gulf, particularly during the Iran-Iraq War, when Gulf shipping faced severe security risks. Iraq had also relied on a pipeline through Syria to the Mediterranean, which Damascus shut down in 1982 under pressure from Tehran, abruptly eliminating a critical export route. Ankara, for its part, had long faced oil-supply deficiencies and was eager to bolster a direct oil relationship with Baghdad and attract investment in its transit center.

The pipeline transformed Turkey’s role in regional energy, generating transit revenues, anchoring long-term bilateral cooperation, and positioning Turkey as an indispensable intermediary between Middle Eastern oil producers and European markets. Since the construction of the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline, Turkey has consistently positioned itself as a reliable transit state, maintaining infrastructure availability even amid regional conflict and political volatility.

Today’s emerging alignment between Turkey and Chevron, ExxonMobil, and BP echoes that earlier moment, but with a critical evolution. In the 1980s, Turkey’s leverage was primarily geographic. It controlled transit infrastructure but had limited direct participation in upstream production. Now, through TPAO’s partnerships and joint ventures, Turkey is positioning itself as both a transit state and a production stakeholder.

Turkey’s time

This shift comes at a time when Western oil majors are recalibrating their Iraq strategies. ExxonMobil, which previously operated West Qurna 1, has explored re-engagement opportunities across Iraq and Kurdistan. BP continues to play a central role in Iraq’s southern oilfields while expanding cooperation with Turkish partners. Chevron itself has maintained a presence in Iraqi Kurdistan and is now poised to take over one of Iraq’s most important producing assets.

These developments reflect a deeper structural change in Iraq’s oil sector. For two decades, Western oil companies competed alongside Russian and Chinese firms for access to Iraq’s giant fields, while Western firms gradually reduced their exposure and Russian and Chinese operators expanded their presence. Now, sanctions, new political leadership in Washington, and geopolitical fragmentation are reshaping that competitive landscape.

Turkey stands to benefit significantly from this transition. Its partnerships with Chevron, ExxonMobil, and BP create the foundation for integrated cooperation across upstream production, pipeline infrastructure, and export logistics. Turkey’s geographic position – connecting Iraqi fields to global markets via Ceyhan – remains as strategically important today as it was during the Iran-Iraq War.

Chevron’s entry into West Qurna 2 is part of a broader reorganization of energy power in Iraq, one that reinforces Turkey’s long-standing and now expanding role as a bridge between Middle Eastern resources and Western capital. As Western oil majors return and Russian influence recedes, Turkey is once again becoming an indispensable partner in Iraq’s energy future, just as it was four decades ago, when the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline first tied the two countries’ energy and economic fortunes together.

John V. Bowlus is the founder of Energy Straits, an Istanbul-based advisory focused on geopolitical risk, energy security, and strategic developments across Europe, the Middle East, and the Eastern Mediterranean.